Now What?

The post-September period is regarded as the “conference season” in the Emirates. Basically, everything happens now, as the stifling heat (and humidity) of summer passes and autumn/winter comes along. For once in a long time, it seems, Abu Dhabi will overtake Dubai in prominence and attention as Grand Prix Abu Dhabi approaches at the end of the month. You can feel Abu Dhabi bubbling already, the media is racketing up and the world will soon descend for one weekend of festivities (race day is on my birthday!!). I hate to be the party pooper, but now is not the time for appeasement and self-congratulation as the ghost of Fitzgerald’s Great Gatsby may be upon us. The New York Times sounds what I have been warning for more than two years now:

Among Iran’s Persian Gulf neighbors there is growing resignation that Iran cannot be stopped from developing nuclear arms, though Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful uses. Some analysts have predicted that a regional arms race will begin and that vulnerable states, like Bahrain, may be encouraged to invite nuclear powers to place weapons on their territories as a deterrent. The United States already has a Navy base in Manama, Bahrain’s capital.

Sacrifices will have to be made. The Kuwaitis, who know what crazy autocracies in this region can do, seem prepared to go any distance:

Mohammed al-Shatti, a member of Kuwait's delegation to OPEC, said in a report in Wednesday's Alrai newspaper that while sanctions could affect the oil market, "the existence of more than 5 million barrels of daily OPEC spare capacity would lessen the negative effects on prices in case of any stoppage of oil supplies from Iran."

Somebody should send Dubai the memo. (Of course Kuwait is not entirely selfless, Sultan Al Qassemi, has an excellent piece on the relations between Arab governments and post-Saddam Iraq – or the lack thereof. Every Arab Foreign Minister should read it and remember that the new Iraq - the only land bulwark against Iran for Arabs – should be taken seriously. So far the Kuwaitis have refused to cancel the debt Iraq. At the very least, petty squabbles should be kept to a minimum).